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Tropical Storm FLOSSIE


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2007
 
BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF FLOSSIE HAS REMAINED ALMOST THE SAME. 
FLOSSIE SHOWS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT EAST OF 
THE CENTER WHERE THE OUTFLOW WAS PREVIOUSLY RESTRICTED.  DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE HELD AT 55
KT...AND THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY AS
WELL.  

THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST...
270/12...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPING AROUND 140W IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FLOSSIE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...
EXCEPT SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. 

FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATERS BETWEEN 26C-27C AND UNDER
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE
SHIPS... HWRF...AND SUPER-ENSEMBLE HAVE BACKED OFF ON INTENSIFYING
FLOSSIE TO A HURRICANE...AND THE GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE BARELY
REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS AND ALLOWS FOR ONLY SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER COOLER WATERS AND IN A MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN
FLOSSIE TO WEAKEN A BIT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT THE
POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR FLOSSIE TO STILL BECOME A HURRICANE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 12.6N 134.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 12.7N 136.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 13.0N 139.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 13.4N 141.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 13.7N 143.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 14.5N 147.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 15.5N 152.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 157.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC