Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression SEVEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2007
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E IS COMPRISED OF
A LARGE CYCLONIC SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ABUNDANT...BUT
DISORGANIZED...CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND IN A LARGE BAND AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE
OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM ARE UNCHANGED SINCE THIS
MORNING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  THE CYCLONE
REMAINS UNDER 20-25 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/7.  THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE
MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HR OR SO.  THIS EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO FOLLOWED
BY A NORTHWESTWAR MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON
THIS...WITH THE SPREAD DECREASING SINCE THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THR GFDL AND THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL NOT READILY
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS IT MAY BE MASKED BY CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AT HIGHER LEVELS.
 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO
CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR...AFTER WHICH THEY FORECAST A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN THE SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...WITH THE GFDL AND THE HRWF
BOTH FORECASTING A 50 KT INTENSITY IN 24 HR.  THIS LOOKS A BIT
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HR WHILE THE SHEAR LASTS...A FASTER
DEVELOPMENT RATE FROM 48-96 HR AS THE SHEAR DECREASES...AND A
WEAKENING TREND AFTER 96 HR AS THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT
STRENGTHEN MUCH THROUGH 48 HR DUE TO THE SHEAR.    
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 12.9N 107.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 13.2N 108.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.8N 109.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.3N 110.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.1N 111.1W    45 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N 114.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:58 UTC