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Tropical Storm COSME


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007               
0900 UTC MON JUL 16 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 144N 1307W 34 87   8(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 144N 1307W 50 32  19(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 12 144N 1307W 64  8   5(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 24 149N 1325W 34  4  67(71)  12(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 24 149N 1325W 50  X  26(26)  13(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 24 149N 1325W 64  X   9( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
 36 152N 1344W 34  1  14(15)  43(58)  11(69)   2(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 36 152N 1344W 50  X   1( 1)  20(21)   7(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 36 152N 1344W 64  X   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 48 155N 1367W 34  X   2( 2)  13(15)  28(43)  11(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 48 155N 1367W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 48 155N 1367W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 162N 1415W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)   5(26)   1(27)
 72 162N 1415W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 72 162N 1415W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 170N 1465W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)
 96 170N 1465W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 170N 1465W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 175N 1515W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
120 175N 1515W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 175N 1515W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     65      65      60      50      40      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:57 UTC