Tropical Depression SIX-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007
 
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED A BIT THIS MORNING WITH A
LARGE CURVED BAND OCCUPYING THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF THE LARGE
CIRCULATION...WHICH HAD BEEN LACKING OVERNIGHT.  BASED ON A 1032 UTC
TRMM MICROWAVE PASS...THE CENTER WAS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE PREVIOUS LOCATION...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BUMPED UP TO
30 KT.  IF THIS ORGANIZING TREND OF THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES...
THE CYCLONE COULD BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON.
 
SINCE POSITION FIXES FROM THE TRMM AND GOES DATA COINCIDE WELL...
THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...NOW ESTIMATED AT
310/5. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK IN AND TAKE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE RELOCATION OF
THE CENTER.
 
WITH WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR CURRENTLY INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM...
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE
CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  SINCE THE
CIRCULATION IS LARGE...HOWEVER...THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS
EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL IN THE SHORT TERM.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 12.3N 127.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 13.0N 127.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 14.0N 129.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 14.7N 130.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 15.3N 132.8W    40 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N 137.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 17.0N 145.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
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