Tropical Depression SIX-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007
 
THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...WITH CLOUD SWIRLS
ROTATING AROUND A HARD TO DISCERN CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THERE
STILL IS LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND ONLY ONE
WELL-DEFINED BAND WHICH IS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  OVERALL...
THE CONVECTION IS LESS VIGOROUS THAN SIX HOURS AGO. 

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER POSITION IS UNCERTAIN...THE INITIAL MOTION
APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 270/6.  SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES
AND THE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
MODELS NOW SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 135W.  SOME MODELS
SHOW THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION ELONGATING AND THEN BEING EJECTED
NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF THE ITCZ...AND INDEED THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
ROTATION IS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE EVEN FARTHER
TO THE NORTH.   

THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...LIGHT SHEAR...AND WARM WATERS.  HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION
IS STILL ENGAGED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE CONVECTION IS WIDELY
DISPERSED.  THIS WOULD ARGUE AGAINST RAPID DEVELOPMENT... ALTHOUGH
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS VERY HIGH.  AFTER 36
HOURS OR SO...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER 26C WATERS
SO WHATEVER INTENSIFICATION DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 11.3N 127.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 11.5N 128.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 12.2N 129.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N 130.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 13.7N 132.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 14.5N 136.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 15.0N 139.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 15.5N 142.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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