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Tropical Depression FOUR-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042007
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2007

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED LITTLE
ASSISTANCE IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  A 0937 UTC AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR
ABOUT FOUR OR FIVE HOURS.  DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
POSITION AS WELL AS THE LONGEVITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE TO
THE EAST AND A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH CAUSED BY PRESENCE OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH.  

DESPITE THE CURRENT DEEP CONVECTION...BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  WITH WATERS
BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO
INCREASE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
LOW IN 36 HOURS OR SO. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 18.6N 120.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 19.2N 121.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 19.9N 123.4W    25 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 20.6N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 20.9N 126.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC