Tropical Storm BARBARA

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TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007

A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THAT ARRIVED JUST AFTER THE
RELEASE OF THIS MORNING ADVISORY DETECTED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES.  SINCE THEN THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY...BUT OVERALL BARBARA
LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO.  CURRENT DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND
THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INFLUENCING
BARBARA'S CURRENT MOTION AS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
065/4.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT.  THE GFS AND
UKMET MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL NOT PICK UP THE
STORM.  THEY KEEP THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE AND TURN IT WESTWARD IN
ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH.  THE ECMWF...
NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND GFDL MODELS TRACK THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS.  HOWEVER...THESE MODELS KEEP A MID-LEVEL CENTER OFFSHORE
WHICH THEY EVENTUALLY TURN WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS
A BLEND OF THE ECMF...NOGAPS...AND GFDL.  THE NHC TRACK ASSUMES
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST.  IF THE SYSTEM DOES
NOT MAKE LANDFALL IT MAY VERY WELL TURN BACK WEST AS INDICATED BY
THE GFS AND UKMET.

BARBARA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION.  BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS BRING THE SYSTEM TO 60 KT
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER IT IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE AS
INTERACTION WITH LAND MAY INHIBIT STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE
FORECAST.  IF BARBARA REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER...THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION COULD BE TOO LOW. 

THE NEW TRACK REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WAS ALSO EXTENDED WESTWARD. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 13.4N  94.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 13.8N  93.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 14.6N  93.3W    55 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 15.2N  93.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 15.8N  93.4W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 16.5N  93.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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