Tropical Depression BARBARA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007
 
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA APPEARS SOMEWHAT
BETTER THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION A LITTLE MORE FOCUSED NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  STILL...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
NEARBY SHIPS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER
SCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND IT IS UNCLEAR IF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION EVEN EXISTS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 30 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY AN
UNUSUALLY COMPLEX PATTERN.  ON ONE HAND...BARBARA IS LOCATED OVER
VERY WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THIS TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE HAS THUS FAR BEEN UNABLE TO BREAK FREE FROM THE LARGER
SCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.  ADDITIONALLY...LAND INTERACTION APPEARS
POSSIBLE IN A DAY OR TWO AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA.  WHILE THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM...SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING
APPEARS LESS AND LESS LIKELY. 

EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF BARBARA REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  SINCE THIS GENERAL MOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH
EXTRAPOLATION...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED AT 090/4.  BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN
UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN WOULD CAUSE BARBARA TO TURN BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST.  HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR IF BARBARA
WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH SYSTEM TO RESPOND TO SUCH A CHANGE IN THE
STEERING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS MODEL. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 13.0N  94.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 13.1N  94.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 13.5N  93.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 14.2N  93.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 14.8N  93.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 16.0N  95.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N  96.0W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME
 
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