Tropical Depression BARBARA
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
800 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS NEARBY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER...IF
IT EXISTS...IS VERY SMALL. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A
LARGE CLOUD BAND RESEMBLING THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AT
THIS TIME...THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS BASED SOLELY ON
CONTINUITY AND IS BEING PLACED NEAR AN AREA OF STRONG BUT SMALL
CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING EASTWARD OR 090 AT 2 KNOTS...
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BASE OF A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD AND A HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...
BARBARA...IF IT SURVIVES...SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTH AND THEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS IS BASICALLY THE
SOLUTION FROM GUIDANCE.
DUE TO THE APPARENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...BARBARA HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED WHEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST TURN
TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO BEGINS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 12.9N 95.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 12.9N 94.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.0N 94.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.0N 94.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 94.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 15.5N 95.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0000Z 16.3N 97.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN