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Tropical Depression TWO-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007
200 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2007
 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS
INCREASED THIS MORNING...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN A CLUSTER
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35
KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...WHILE AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RANGED FROM 28 TO 42 KT DURING THE PAST 12
HR.  WHILE THE EVIDENCE SHOWS THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...IT IS NOT YET UNAMBIGUOUS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN
UPGRADE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 30 KT.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE TROUGH.  THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A BROAD PARTLY
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 36 HR...AND WITH A SURFACE
LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 48-72 HR. 
THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION WITH THE PROVERBIAL
SQUASHED SPIDER PATTERN.  THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD MOTION FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE
GFDN...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TO
LANDFALL IN EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA.  THE GFS FORECASTS A
NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE THE
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE BAM MODELS FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION. 
THE GULF TROUGH SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HR AND ALLOW
RIDGING TO BUILD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SO IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT
MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE THEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE. 
HOWEVER... IF THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE GULF IS STRONG
ENOUGH...THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY FLOW COULD PULL THE CYCLONE INTO
EASTERN MEXICO OR CENTRAL AMERICA.  THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...
AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. 
THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BOTH MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE IN 48-60
HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE...
CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR AND A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 96 HR.  TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ARE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH
COULD ALLOW RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES BOTH UP AND DOWN...AND THE
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE SYSTEM WILL GET.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 14.1N  97.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 13.9N  97.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 13.6N  96.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 13.1N  96.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 13.0N  96.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 13.5N  96.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 14.5N  97.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     04/0600Z 16.0N  99.0W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC