Tropical Depression ALVIN
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007
800 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
ALVIN HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AND AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON NIGHT-VIS IMAGES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
LOOKS TO BE ON A FAST TRACK TO DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALVIN IS CREEPING TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...250/2. MODELS CONTINUE THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK FOR A FEW DAYS DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS ALSO A TOUCH SLOWER SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
STUBBORNLY REFUSING TO MOVE MUCH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 13.0N 115.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 12.9N 115.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 01/1200Z 12.7N 116.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 02/0000Z 12.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1200Z 12.3N 117.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1200Z 11.9N 118.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/1200Z 11.2N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/1200Z 10.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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