Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm OLGA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007
400 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007
 
OLGA HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION DURING ITS CROSSING OF HISPANIOLA. 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME...
AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA ARE RELATIVELY WEAK.  THERE ARE NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM NEAR THE CENTER OR FROM THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION....SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  THIS MAY BE
GENEROUS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16.  OLGA IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...FLORIDA...AND
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE
WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON DAYS 4-5.  THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION HAS CAUSED THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS
AFTER OLGA MOVES WESTWARD FOR 24-48 HR.  THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...TO TURN NORTHWARD AND RECURVE INTO THE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  ON THE OTHER HAND...
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST OLGA TO TURN SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE GULF
OF HONDURAS.  THIS FORECAST MAY BE DUE TO THOSE MODELS KEEPING MORE
RIDGING WEST OF OLGA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND FORECASTING A
STRONG CYCLONE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
BUT WILL NOT YET CALL FOR RECURVATURE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL...
HWRF...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THAT HAS
SO FAR PROTECTED OLGA FROM SHEAR WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HR
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THUS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...CALLING FOR OLGA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 24 HR AND
TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND
HWRF FORECAST OLGA TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LIGHTER WIND SHEAR IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND IN CONSEQUENCE BOTH MODELS FORECAST IT
TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO THE CHANCES
OF OLGA BEING A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT AREA APPEAR
RATHER LOW AT THE MOMENT.
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO AND 
HISPANIOLA.  THESE RAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 19.2N  72.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 19.4N  74.9W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 19.6N  77.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 19.8N  79.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 20.0N  81.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 20.5N  84.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 12-Dec-2007 19:17:11 UTC