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Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
1500 UTC THU NOV 01 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   X(16)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  22(31)   X(31)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  23(45)   X(45)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   X(16)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  26(49)   1(50)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   X(19)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)  22(48)   X(48)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   9(18)   1(19)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  40(40)  10(50)   X(50)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  35(35)  14(49)   X(49)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   7(20)   X(20)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  44(44)   7(51)   X(51)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   3(20)   X(20)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  39(39)   5(44)   X(44)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   2(18)   X(18)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)   2(30)   X(30)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   5(27)   X(27)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
MONCTON NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   3(23)   X(23)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
ST JOHN NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   1(17)   1(18)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
EASTPORT ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   1(11)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34 22   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 58   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANDROS         34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ANDROS         50 47   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34 26   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34 18   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 258N  769W 34 97   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 258N  769W 50 63   4(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 12 258N  769W 64  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 24 284N  749W 34  5  66(71)   8(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 24 284N  749W 50  X  28(28)   5(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 24 284N  749W 64  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 36 320N  720W 34  X   2( 2)  48(50)  10(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 36 320N  720W 50  X   X( X)  16(16)   8(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 36 320N  720W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 360N  690W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  47(49)  12(61)   1(62)   X(62)
 48 360N  690W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   8(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 48 360N  690W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 
 72 460N  610W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  38(38)  11(49)   X(49)
 72 460N  610W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)
 72 460N  610W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 565N  500W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)  10(41)
 96 565N  500W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   4(17)
 96 565N  500W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
 
120 670N  250W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)
120 670N  250W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
120 670N  250W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     55      55      65      70      65      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC