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Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   3(13)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   6(18)   2(20)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)  10(16)   5(21)   1(22)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)  12(28)   6(34)   3(37)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)  12(23)   6(29)   3(32)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  1   6( 7)  11(18)   3(21)   6(27)   2(29)   2(31)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GRAND TURK     34  2   5( 7)   5(12)   2(14)   2(16)   2(18)   1(19)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   6(18)   3(21)   1(22)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  1  25(26)  23(49)   3(52)   2(54)   1(55)   1(56)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   6( 6)  16(22)   2(24)   1(25)   1(26)   X(26)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
KINGSTON       34  1   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   1(12)
 
LES CAYES      34 29  23(52)   4(56)   1(57)   X(57)   1(58)   X(58)
LES CAYES      50  6  19(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)   1(28)   X(28)
LES CAYES      64  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 68  10(78)   2(80)   X(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 13  10(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
CAPE BEATA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE BEATA     50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  4   5( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 179N  728W 34 83   5(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   1(89)   X(89)
 12 179N  728W 50 37   6(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 12 179N  728W 64  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 24 191N  740W 34 14  46(60)   7(67)   1(68)   1(69)   X(69)   1(70)
 24 191N  740W 50  1  26(27)   6(33)   1(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 24 191N  740W 64  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 36 202N  750W 34  1  25(26)  25(51)   3(54)   1(55)   2(57)   X(57)
 36 202N  750W 50  X   5( 5)  17(22)   2(24)   1(25)   1(26)   X(26)
 36 202N  750W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 214N  758W 34  1   6( 7)  23(30)   9(39)   5(44)   2(46)   1(47)
 48 214N  758W 50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 48 214N  758W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 235N  760W 34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)  11(27)   7(34)   2(36)
 72 235N  760W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 72 235N  760W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
 96 260N  750W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  11(13)   9(22)   4(26)
 96 260N  750W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
 96 260N  750W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
120 290N  735W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   5(16)
120 290N  735W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
120 290N  735W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     60      60      45      50      50      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC