Tropical Storm NOEL

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TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
2100 UTC MON OCT 29 2007
 
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUAY AND LAS TUNAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.
 
AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  74.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  74.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  73.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.4N  75.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.7N  77.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.7N  78.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.8N  79.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.5N  77.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 35.0N  68.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N  74.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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