Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL HAS
DRAMATICALLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LARGE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT NOEL HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KT...BASED
ON EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY OCCURRING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS STILL NOT VERY
DISRUPTED BY THE INCOMING SHEAR AND GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...NOEL STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL ZONE.
 
AFTER A LONG TIME OVER CUBA OR NEARBY...NOEL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. NOEL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BUT THE PREVAILING WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE
AND SOON...NOEL WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL FORCE NOEL TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...NOEL WILL BE AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
SINCE NOEL IS ALREADY MOVING NORTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ...THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY UNEXPECTED INCREASE
IN THE WIND RADII WEST OF THE CYCLONE OR A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE. IN FACT...
ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING
NOEL A LITTLE...TURNING IT NORTHEASTWARD...AND MAKING IT
EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 23.2N  78.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 24.3N  78.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 26.5N  77.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 29.5N  74.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 33.5N  70.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 42.0N  63.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 50.0N  53.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/0000Z 55.0N  42.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC