Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
 
THE CENTER OF NOEL DRIFTED WESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
MIDDAY...BUT RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...OR PERHAPS
MAKING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA. THE CENTER IS NOT AS WELL CONNECTED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS
IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT
THE TWO WILL NOT COMPLETELY SEPARATE. INDEED...THERE WAS SOME
EVIDENCE IN THE RECON DATA AROUND 18Z THAT A SECOND VORTICITY
CENTER WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SURFACE CENTER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE CYCLONE...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION
OF NOEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A GFDL/HWRF/GFS
BLEND...EXCEPT FOR BEING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.   

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR
DATA.  THERE COULD BE SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEGINS.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
NOEL WILL BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE
DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD OF NOEL HAS
EXPANDED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW
BRINGS TROPICAL STORM WINDS TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
SINCE ANY SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WINDS AT THE COAST WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WHILE A WATCH IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
A LONGER LEAD TIME THAN A WARNING...IT ALSO CONVEYS THE
POSSIBILITY...AS OPPOSED TO THE EXPECTATION...OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS.  BECAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...A WATCH IS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A
WARNING.  THE NEED FOR A WARNING WILL BE REASSESSED THIS EVENING.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/2100Z 22.6N  78.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 23.5N  79.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 25.3N  78.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 28.0N  76.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.5N  72.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 39.0N  66.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 49.0N  57.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     05/1800Z 60.0N  47.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC