Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND THE CAMAGUEY RADAR INDICATE THE
THE CENTER IS NOT FAR FROM THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY.  INFRARED IMAGERY
AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THAT INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NOT
FAR EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED OVER LAND IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. 

CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA
SUGGEST THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS CEASED.  INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/4.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS STEERING FLOW EVOLUTION
SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN
TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS NOEL GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU.

ONCE THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...THERE WILL BE A
SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN. 
HOWEVER...IN 36-48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 OR 40 KT.  THIS SHOULD TERMINATE ANY
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS TRANSFORM NOEL INTO A
VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  SEE STATEMENTS FROM NWS
LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 21.4N  78.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 22.1N  78.8W    35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 23.3N  78.8W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 25.1N  78.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 27.6N  76.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 34.5N  69.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 42.0N  62.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     05/0000Z 51.0N  55.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC