Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm NOEL


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

SO FAR...NOEL HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED ON
SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A BROAD AND SPRAWLING
APPEARANCE.  SOME CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY
OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  THE HOLGUIN RADAR IN CUBA ALSO
INDICATED THAT THE STORM WAS NOT YET VERY WELL ORGANIZED. 
CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE BUT LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES.   

THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO FIND ON INFRARED IMAGES BUT A 1002 MB SHIP
OR BUOY OBSERVATION NEAR 0000 UTC WAS LIKELY NOT FAR FROM THE
CENTER.  THE HOLGUIN RADAR WAS ALSO USEFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/11.  THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO TURN NOEL
NORTHWARD.  THEREAFTER A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
TRACK PREDICTION MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...
GFDN...AND NOGAPS...HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE
AROUND THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FLORIDA COAST.
ACCORDINGLY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME...
ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IS PROBABLY
STILL HAVING A SLIGHT INHIBITING EFFECT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF
NOEL.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER LOW IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING.  THEREFORE SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...WESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG AND THIS
SHOULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION.  BY DAY 4 OR SOONER NOEL WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD BE
TRANSFORMED INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE MIAMI WFO...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.  HIGH WIND
WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM
BEACH COUNTIES DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE APPROACH OF NOEL. 
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY....DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST TRACK
AND WIND RADII OF THE TROPICAL STORM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 21.2N  75.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 22.2N  76.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 23.3N  77.6W    55 KT
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 24.4N  78.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 25.5N  78.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 28.5N  75.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 33.0N  70.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     04/0000Z 38.0N  64.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC