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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007               
2100 UTC WED SEP 26 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   8(18)   5(23)   X(23)   X(23)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   9( 9)  12(21)   9(30)   5(35)   X(35)   X(35)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X  10(10)   9(19)   6(25)   5(30)   X(30)   X(30)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 212N  948W 34 26  20(46)  10(56)   2(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 12 212N  948W 50  1   5( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 12 212N  948W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 209N  951W 34 17  25(42)  12(54)   3(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 24 209N  951W 50  1   6( 7)   4(11)   3(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 24 209N  951W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 207N  956W 34  8  28(36)  13(49)   4(53)   3(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 36 207N  956W 50  X   5( 5)   6(11)   4(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 36 207N  956W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 205N  963W 34  2  21(23)  16(39)   7(46)   5(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 48 205N  963W 50  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 48 205N  963W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 202N  978W 34  X   5( 5)   8(13)   7(20)   5(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 72 202N  978W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 202N  978W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     45      50      55      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:51 UTC