Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007
 
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY...BUT AN SSMI MICROWAVE PASS JUST BEFORE 00Z DEPICTED THE
SMALL CENTER NICELY AND INDICATES THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/4. 
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  SOME OF THE MODELS ROTATE THE DEPRESSION
WITHIN A BROADER LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
UNTIL MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.  GIVEN THE INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...AND
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN MAY TAKE A COUPLE DAYS TO DEVELOP...A SHORT-TERM LOOPING
SCENARIO MIGHT BE A REASONABLE ONE.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CYCLING TODAY...AND IS PRESENTLY AT A
MINIMUM. THERE IS STILL SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST
NEAR TAMPICO. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND BE REPLACED BY AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
THE SYSTEM AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED UNTIL THAT OCCURS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
GFDL SHOWS A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND IS
NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LESS QUICKLY
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 21.7N  95.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 21.5N  95.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 21.3N  95.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 21.1N  95.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 20.9N  95.6W    40 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N  96.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N  98.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:50 UTC