Tropical Storm KAREN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
0900 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 148N 509W 34 53 10(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
12 148N 509W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
12 148N 509W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 160N 524W 34 4 30(34) 10(44) 1(45) 1(46) 1(47) X(47)
24 160N 524W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
24 160N 524W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 173N 538W 34 X 7( 7) 19(26) 7(33) 4(37) 1(38) 1(39)
36 173N 538W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
36 173N 538W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 185N 550W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 12(22) 6(28) 3(31) 1(32)
48 185N 550W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
48 185N 550W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 205N 564W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 6(27) 2(29)
72 205N 564W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
72 205N 564W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
96 220N 575W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 8(20) 4(24)
96 220N 575W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
96 220N 575W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
120 225N 600W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 6(16)
120 225N 600W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
120 225N 600W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 35 35 35 40 45 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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