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Hurricane HUMBERTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007               
0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOBILE AL      34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  1   X( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BURAS LA       34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSON MS     34  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 84   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 20   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 309N  935W 34 72   5(77)   X(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 12 309N  935W 50 26   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 12 309N  935W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 322N  920W 34  3  16(19)   3(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 24 322N  920W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 322N  920W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 327N  902W 34  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 36 327N  902W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 36 327N  902W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 323N  880W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 48 323N  880W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 48 323N  880W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     30      25      20       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:48 UTC