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Hurricane HUMBERTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007               
0515 UTC THU SEP 13 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0515Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSON MS     34  1   X( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  3   7(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 82   4(86)   X(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 30   4(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 84   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
GALVESTON TX   50  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GALVESTON TX   64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 301N  939W 34 79   5(84)   X(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 12 301N  939W 50 26   6(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 12 301N  939W 64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 316N  927W 34  3  17(20)   3(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 24 316N  927W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 316N  927W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 325N  912W 34  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 36 325N  912W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 36 325N  912W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 325N  900W 34  1   X( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 48 325N  900W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 48 325N  900W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     30      25      20       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:48 UTC