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Tropical Storm INGRID


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 151N  494W 34 64   7(71)   1(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 12 151N  494W 50  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 12 151N  494W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 156N  504W 34 25  23(48)   5(53)   1(54)   1(55)   X(55)   1(56)
 24 156N  504W 50  1   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 156N  504W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 162N  516W 34  2  15(17)  13(30)   5(35)   3(38)   X(38)   1(39)
 36 162N  516W 50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 36 162N  516W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 167N  529W 34  1   3( 4)   7(11)  10(21)   4(25)   1(26)   1(27)
 48 167N  529W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 48 167N  529W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 178N  560W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  10(13)   4(17)   2(19)
 72 178N  560W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 72 178N  560W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 190N  585W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   2(14)
 96 190N  585W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 96 190N  585W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 205N  605W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
120 205N  605W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 205N  605W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     40      35      35      35      30      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:47 UTC