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Tropical Depression INGRID


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
 
INGRID CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND NO LONGER
QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY.  STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A LESS HOSTILE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

THE CIRCULATION HAS LITTLE SIGNATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES AND ITS
CENTER SEEMS TO NO LONGER BE WELL DEFINED.  MY INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 280/10 IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE.  FORECAST POINTS FOR A
BROAD REMNANT LOW ARE PROVIDED OUT TO 24 HOURS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 17.5N  60.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 17.8N  61.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 18.3N  62.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:47 UTC