Tropical Depression EIGHT

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS ACQUIRED
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE
EIGHTH OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON.  THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO SOME EASTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB SUPPORT 30 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 295/10.  THE
DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY
OR SO WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE AND MOVE
SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.

THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  THUS...CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
BEYOND 72 HOURS....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD
HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 13.2N  44.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 13.6N  45.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N  47.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 14.3N  48.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 14.6N  49.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 15.1N  51.4W    60 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N  54.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 17.0N  57.5W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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