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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007
 
IN ADDITION TO THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ECLIPSE PERIOD FOR
GOES-EAST...GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN UNAVAILABLE
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT DUE TO A LUNAR SHADOW.  THIS
EVENT OCCURS ABOUT TWICE PER YEAR WHEN THE MOON IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN THE SATELLITE AND THE SUN.  LUCKILY...A VERY TIMELY TRMM
PASS AT 0611 UTC HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER AND INDICATED DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
ADDITIONALLY...GABRIELLE IS JUST BECOMING VISIBLE IN THE OUTER
FRINGES OF METSAT-9 IMAGERY...WHICH ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
THUS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  GABRIELLE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER A WARM CORE EDDY IN A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE...
GABRIELLE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...ALBEIT
LIMITED...FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SHARPLY COOLER WATERS
TO THE NORTH AND A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE IN 24-36 HOURS. 

THE 0611 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE IS MOVING A LITTLE
TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 065/18.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE
TOWARD THE NORTH BASED ON THIS DATA. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 39.0N  66.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 40.2N  63.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 42.1N  58.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:46 UTC