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Hurricane FELIX


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007               
2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)   3(25)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  21(33)   5(38)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   3(17)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)  10(35)   2(37)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   2(17)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  31(36)  13(49)   2(51)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  10(27)   X(27)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)   X(15)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  10(27)   1(28)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)  30(53)   5(58)   1(59)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  24(33)   3(36)   X(36)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)   2(22)   X(22)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)  10(10)  21(31)   8(39)   2(41)   X(41)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   5(17)   1(18)   X(18)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
BLUEFIELDS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
SAN ANDRES     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PT GALLINAS    34 12   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)   1(18)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)   5(22)   1(23)   X(23)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
KINGSTON       34  1   7( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 141N  745W 34 95   3(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 141N  745W 50 70  14(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 12 141N  745W 64 41  14(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 
 24 148N  780W 34  1  81(82)   8(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 24 148N  780W 50  X  53(53)  15(68)   X(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 24 148N  780W 64  X  24(24)  14(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
 36 154N  811W 34  X   6( 6)  62(68)  11(79)   3(82)   1(83)   X(83)
 36 154N  811W 50  X   2( 2)  41(43)  13(56)   3(59)   1(60)   X(60)
 36 154N  811W 64  X   1( 1)  22(23)  11(34)   2(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
 48 160N  835W 34  X   X( X)  23(23)  36(59)  12(71)   2(73)   X(73)
 48 160N  835W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  28(35)  14(49)   1(50)   X(50)
 48 160N  835W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)  10(28)   1(29)   X(29)
 
 
 72 173N  877W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  35(42)  12(54)   1(55)
 72 173N  877W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)   8(30)   1(31)
 72 173N  877W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   6(18)   X(18)
 
 
 96 195N  915W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  22(30)   5(35)
 96 195N  915W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   2(18)
 96 195N  915W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)
 
 
120 215N  950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   9(23)
120 215N  950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)
120 215N  950W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    125    130     135     135     135      80      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:45 UTC