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Tropical Storm FELIX
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 10(26)
BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 9(34)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 3(24)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10)
BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 2(17)
SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
COLON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
PT GALLINAS 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CURACAO 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
CURACAO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) 2(29)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 4(28) X(28)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) 2(33) X(33)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PONCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AVES 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 128N 644W 34 31 12(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
12 128N 644W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
12 128N 644W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 134N 677W 34 1 42(43) 13(56) X(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57)
24 134N 677W 50 X 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
24 134N 677W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 141N 712W 34 X 2( 2) 43(45) 11(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58)
36 141N 712W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 10(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
36 141N 712W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
48 146N 746W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) 14(54) 1(55) 1(56)
48 146N 746W 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24)
48 146N 746W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10)
72 155N 810W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 13(44) 2(46)
72 155N 810W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) 1(21)
72 155N 810W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)
96 165N 865W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 9(30)
96 165N 865W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15)
96 165N 865W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
120 180N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14)
120 180N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
120 180N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 50 60 70 80 90 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
NNNN
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