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Hurricane FELIX


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

FELIX IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT
MAINTAINS CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT PENETRATED THE EYE TWICE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE
EYE DIAMETER HAS SHRUNK TO 10 N MI...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931
MB WAS MEASURED...BUT THAT DROPSONDE DID NOT QUITE CATCH THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION...SO THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 929 MB. 
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 155 KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE
WINDS OF 140 KT... BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 145 KT
SINCE THIS MISSION MIGHT HAVE JUST MISSED THE MAXIMUM WIND.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING IN A RATHER STRAIGHT LINE ALONG A HEADING OF
280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MIGHT EVEN
BE A LITTLE FASTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BASICALLY EXTRAPOLATES
THE CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH ONLY A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER THAT A MODEST BEND TO THE
RIGHT IS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT ALL OF THE MODELS CONCUR...WITH
THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF NEVER TAKING FELIX OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  WHILE INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES COULD OCCUR AND LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...I SEE NO REASON TO FORECAST ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE
FELIX IS GUARANTEED TO STILL BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN. BEYOND THAT TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY
COMPLICATED BY THE EXACT TRACK THAT FELIX TAKES AND THE AMOUNT OF
TIME IT SPENDS OVER LAND. IF THE HURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK DURING THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD...IT
WILL SPEND MORE TIME OVER WATER AND WOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN A GREATER
INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT WOULD SPEND EVEN MORE TIME OVER LAND AND
COULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED BELOW. IN ADDITION...THE
FORECAST RESTRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS ON DAY 4 ASSUMES THAT
FELIX WILL IN FACT EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 14.1N  75.9W   145 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N  78.7W   150 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 15.0N  81.9W   145 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 15.5N  84.8W   125 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 15.9N  87.2W   100 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 17.5N  91.5W    55 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N  95.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 20.5N  98.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:45 UTC