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Hurricane FELIX


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
 
SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PENETRATION OF FELIX AT
23Z...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY...WITH
THE HIGHEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK RAW T NUMBERS REACHING T7.3 AROUND
00Z.  GIVEN NO NET TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE
TIME OF THE LAST FIX...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 145 KT. 
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...AND FELIX HAS YET TO PASS
OVER THE VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION.  THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE-SCALE FACTORS
TO CAUSE APPRECIABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH
THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18.  THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT ACCELERATION
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN ONLY VERY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENOUGH ONLY TO SLOW THE
FORWARD SPEED A BIT...BEFORE FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF ADDITIONAL
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  AFTER THAT...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THE GULF STATES DURING DAYS 4-5.  MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SIX HOURS AGO...IS MORE DIVERSE NOW.  THE MAJOR
MODEL SHIFT IS WITH THE GFS...WHICH NOW KEEPS FELIX OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL LIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 13.9N  73.9W   145 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N  76.6W   150 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 15.0N  79.8W   145 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.6N  82.8W   145 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.2N  85.2W   145 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 17.5N  89.0W   135 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N  93.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     08/0000Z 21.5N  96.5W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:45 UTC