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Hurricane DEAN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE DEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007               
0900 UTC MON AUG 20 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130   
KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)   X(20)   X(20)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  22(26)   X(26)   X(26)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
LA PESCO MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  32(40)   X(40)   X(40)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)
TAMPICO MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  29(40)   X(40)   X(40)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   X(15)   X(15)
TUXPAN MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  12(25)   X(25)   X(25)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
VERACRUZ MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   1( 1)  17(18)  18(36)   4(40)   X(40)   X(40)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X  10(10)  52(62)   8(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)
MERIDA MX      50  X   1( 1)  25(26)   5(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)  12(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  3  62(65)  11(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
COZUMEL MX     50  X  21(21)   8(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   8( 8)   5(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BELIZE         34  1  25(26)  21(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
BELIZE         50  X   7( 7)  10(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
BELIZE         64  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GUANAJA        34  3  24(27)   1(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
GUANAJA        50  1   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  3  13(16)   2(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  5   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34 98   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 181N  835W 34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 181N  835W 50 89   6(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 181N  835W 64 61  17(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 
 24 188N  870W 34  4  84(88)   8(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 24 188N  870W 50  X  67(67)  11(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 24 188N  870W 64  X  41(41)  15(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
 36 196N  905W 34  X   6( 6)  60(66)  13(79)   2(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 36 196N  905W 50  X   1( 1)  38(39)   9(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 36 196N  905W 64  X   X( X)  23(23)   5(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
 48 205N  940W 34  X   X( X)  13(13)  44(57)  12(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 48 205N  940W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  27(30)  11(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 48 205N  940W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 
 72 220N 1005W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 72 220N 1005W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 220N 1005W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    135    140      75      90      30       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:43 UTC