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Tropical Depression FOUR


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007               
0300 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  12(21)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  13(21)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  11(18)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
SAINT VINCENT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)
BARBADOS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
PORT OF SPAIN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 120N  374W 34 16   9(25)   X(25)   X(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 12 120N  374W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 120N  374W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 120N  404W 34  X  23(23)  10(33)   X(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 24 120N  404W 50  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 24 120N  404W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 122N  434W 34  X   1( 1)  27(28)   9(37)   1(38)   1(39)   X(39)
 36 122N  434W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 36 122N  434W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 126N  464W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)   9(35)   1(36)   1(37)
 48 126N  464W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 48 126N  464W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 138N  520W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  11(33)   2(35)
 72 138N  520W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   1(14)
 72 138N  520W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 160N  575W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)  10(32)
 96 160N  575W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)
 96 160N  575W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
 
120 185N  625W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  13(20)
120 185N  625W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
120 185N  625W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      50      60      75      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:43 UTC