Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane DEAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007
 
DEAN HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
OF 70 KT IS AGAIN BASED ON TYPICAL DECAY RATES...AND HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE IN THE CYCLONE AROUND 00Z TO ASCERTAIN THE TRUE STRENGTH OF
DEAN.  BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY INTACT...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE
CENTER.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING TO BEGIN FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND DEAN COULD BE VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE
TIME OF ITS LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT DECAY AND HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD END UP
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 280/17...AND THERE CONTINUES TO
BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO STEER DEAN ON A TRACK
JUST NORTH OF WEST.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE DIVERGENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A BIT OF JOG TO THE RIGHT JUST
BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 19.4N  91.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 19.8N  93.9W    85 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 20.5N  97.1W    95 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:43 UTC