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Subtropical Storm ANDREA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA                                                 
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012007               
2100 UTC WED MAY 09 2007                                            

... CORRECTED ...                                                                    

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  2   7( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   8(22)   X(22)   X(22)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  1   7( 8)   5(13)   2(15)  11(26)   X(26)   X(26)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 306N  806W 34 30  12(42)   2(44)   1(45)   4(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 12 306N  806W 50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 306N  806W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 302N  808W 34 15  13(28)   3(31)   2(33)   7(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 24 302N  808W 50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 24 302N  808W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 298N  809W 34  7  11(18)   5(23)   2(25)   9(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 36 298N  809W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 36 298N  809W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 295N  809W 34  3  11(14)   4(18)   2(20)  10(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 48 295N  809W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 48 295N  809W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 295N  809W 34  3  11(14)   4(18)   2(20)  10(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 72 295N  809W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 72 295N  809W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      30      30      25       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB/SISKO                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:40 UTC