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Hurricane SERGIO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006               
2100 UTC WED NOV 15 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   1(13)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)   6(22)   1(23)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)   6(22)   1(23)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)  10(21)   2(23)   1(24)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   8(17)   2(19)   X(19)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 120N 1033W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 120N 1033W 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 120N 1033W 64 59  17(76)   1(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 
 24 128N 1034W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 24 128N 1034W 50 27  45(72)   6(78)   2(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 24 128N 1034W 64  9  35(44)   9(53)   1(54)   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
 36 140N 1037W 34 11  46(57)  22(79)   5(84)   4(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 36 140N 1037W 50  2  17(19)  27(46)   6(52)   3(55)   1(56)   X(56)
 36 140N 1037W 64  X   7( 7)  18(25)   5(30)   2(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
 48 150N 1040W 34  2  17(19)  34(53)  13(66)   9(75)   1(76)   1(77)
 48 150N 1040W 50  X   3( 3)  20(23)  11(34)   6(40)   1(41)   X(41)
 48 150N 1040W 64  X   1( 1)  10(11)   7(18)   5(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 
 72 165N 1055W 34  1   2( 3)  10(13)  14(27)  21(48)   6(54)   1(55)
 72 165N 1055W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  13(19)   2(21)   1(22)
 72 165N 1055W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
 
 96 180N 1065W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  18(24)  10(34)   2(36)
 96 180N 1065W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 96 180N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
120 200N 1075W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   3(18)
120 200N 1075W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
120 200N 1075W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    100    105     100      90      80      70      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Nov-2006 20:35:04 UTC