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Tropical Storm SERGIO


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006               
2100 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   7(15)   3(18)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   7(15)   3(18)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)   6(16)   1(17)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)   2(14)
 
ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
P MALDONADO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 130N 1047W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 130N 1047W 50 40   8(48)   5(53)   3(56)   2(58)   1(59)   X(59)
 12 130N 1047W 64  7   7(14)   3(17)   2(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 24 131N 1048W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 24 131N 1048W 50 29  10(39)   6(45)   4(49)   2(51)   1(52)   X(52)
 24 131N 1048W 64  6   7(13)   4(17)   2(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 36 133N 1049W 34 55  12(67)   7(74)   3(77)   5(82)   X(82)   1(83)
 36 133N 1049W 50 19  13(32)   6(38)   5(43)   4(47)   1(48)   X(48)
 36 133N 1049W 64  4   6(10)   5(15)   3(18)   3(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 48 140N 1050W 34 12  25(37)  15(52)   9(61)   9(70)   2(72)   X(72)
 48 140N 1050W 50  2   9(11)  11(22)   7(29)   7(36)   3(39)   X(39)
 48 140N 1050W 64  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   5(14)   5(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 
 
 72 155N 1050W 34  X   3( 3)  13(16)  16(32)  17(49)   6(55)   1(56)
 72 155N 1050W 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)  10(20)   3(23)   1(24)
 72 155N 1050W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
 
 
 96 165N 1055W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  11(17)  18(35)   8(43)   2(45)
 96 165N 1055W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   4(15)   1(16)
 96 165N 1055W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
120 180N 1065W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  10(14)   9(23)   5(28)
120 180N 1065W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
120 180N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     70      80      80      80      75      70
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Nov-2006 21:00:03 UTC