Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm SERGIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
700 AM PST SUN NOV 19 2006
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF SERGIO REMAINS EXPOSED UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY IS
AROUND 75 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS BASED ON
SHEAR PATTERNS FROM 1200 UTC REMAIN AT T3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB.  HOWEVER...FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE PICTURES INDICATE THE CONVECTION
HAS BECOME FURTHER DETACHED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH STILL COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS.  LATEST
QUIKSCAT PASS...FROM 1254 UTC...INDICATED 30-40 KT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE SOME OF WHICH ARE PROBABLY OVERINFLATED DUE TO
RAIN CONTAMINATION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/3.  THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS STEERING THE CYCLONE ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE HAMPERING THE CYCLONE'S FORWARD MOTION.  AS
THE RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY TO THE WEST UNTIL
DISSIPATION OCCURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE
PULLED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED...AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN TWO
DAYS.  THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM
SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSSE.  HOWEVER...BASED UPON THE CURRENT SATELLITE
DEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW COULD OCCUR
FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 15.3N 105.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 15.4N 105.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 15.6N 106.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 15.8N 107.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Nov-2006 14:35:03 UTC