Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm SERGIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
100 PM PST SAT NOV 18 2006
 
DESPITE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SERGIO IS MAINTAINING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF ITS CIRCULATION TODAY.  DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 AND 3.5.  ASSUMING THAT
SERGIO'S POSITION IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTION...THE
INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO REMAIN 45 KT AT THE LOW END OF THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES.  SERGIO REMAINS OVER QUITE WARM WATER AND A CONDUCIVE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.  HOWEVER...AS THE SHEAR IS PREDICTED BY ALL
GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS
NEAR THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MODELS...BUT IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT FORECAST IN THE LAST ADVISORY.

SERGIO IS MOVING 310/6 ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE.  IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS THE CYCLONE TO A
SHALLOWER SYSTEM...THEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED UPON THE MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE GFDL...WHICH HAS AN
UNREALISTIC INITIAL LOOP.

A 1320 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR A CONTRACTION OF THE GALE FORCE
WIND RADII TO BE ANALYZED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 15.6N 104.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N 105.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 16.5N 106.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 16.8N 107.2W    35 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.1N 108.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Nov-2006 20:45:03 UTC