Tropical Depression TWENTY-E

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202006
800 AM PDT SAT NOV 11 2006
 
EVEN THOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY DEEP
CONVECTION FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS NOT
WELL-ORGANIZED.  QUIKSCAT DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM A 1300 UTC
OVERPASS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM BARELY HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION
AND IS LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY AN ELONGATED TROUGH ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH SYSTEMS AT
THIS STAGE...THE QUIKSCAT DATA ARE INCONCLUSIVE REGARDING THE
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS...WITH RETRIEVED WINDS OF 20-25 KT OUTSIDE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND JUST A FEW 35-KT WINDS BENEATH THE
CONVECTION THAT COULD EASILY BE RAIN-INFLATED.  GIVEN THE QUIKSCAT
DATA...AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS.  IF THE SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP A
LESS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD APPEAR
TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN ANTICIPATING THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 260/5...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE CENTER WITHIN THE ELONGATED TROUGH. 
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AND MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.  THEREAFTER...MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN AND PERHAPS INDUCE A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE GFDL.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 12.3N 113.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 12.5N 113.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 13.3N 114.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 14.1N 114.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 14.9N 114.6W    35 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 15.3N 114.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 15.5N 115.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/1200Z 15.5N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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