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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110804
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202006
200 AM PDT SAT NOV 11 2006

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ONE

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE TROPICAL
LOW SITUATED ABOUT 620 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND AN 11/0156Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
INDICATED A FEW 25-30 KT NON-RAIN FLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AND NUMEROUS 40-50 KT RAIN FLAGGED HI-RES WIND
VECTORS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THE TIME OF THE
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED INTO BANDING FEATURES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/04 KT...BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND
OF QUIKSCAT AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THREE BAM MODELS...THE REST OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR TD-20E TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO A
BROAD COL REGION IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS
...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING
TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW BAND ABOUT 6 DEGREES WIDE OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. AS TD-20E MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THIS NARROW COMFORT ZONE AND GRADUALLY
ENCOUNTER INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR BY 48 HOURS.
THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
35-40 KT TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY WAS HELD UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL DUE THE LATTER FORECAST BEING BASED ON
THE MUCH FASTER BAMM MODEL...WHICH MOVES TD-20E OVER COOLER SSTS
AND INTO THE STRONGER SHEAR MUCH SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/0900Z 13.0N 113.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 13.3N 113.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 114.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 15.7N 116.3W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 15.5N 117.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/0600Z 15.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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Page last modified: Monday, 13-Nov-2006 20:08:11 UTC