000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110804 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202006 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 11 2006 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ONE CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE TROPICAL LOW SITUATED ABOUT 620 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND AN 11/0156Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 25-30 KT NON-RAIN FLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT AND NUMEROUS 40-50 KT RAIN FLAGGED HI-RES WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THE TIME OF THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/04 KT...BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF QUIKSCAT AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THREE BAM MODELS...THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR TD-20E TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BROAD COL REGION IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS ...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW BAND ABOUT 6 DEGREES WIDE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. AS TD-20E MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THIS NARROW COMFORT ZONE AND GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR BY 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A 35-40 KT TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY WAS HELD UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL DUE THE LATTER FORECAST BEING BASED ON THE MUCH FASTER BAMM MODEL...WHICH MOVES TD-20E OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO THE STRONGER SHEAR MUCH SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 13.0N 113.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 13.3N 113.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 114.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 15.7N 116.3W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/0600Z 15.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Page last modified: Monday, 13-Nov-2006 20:08:11 UTC