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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006               
2100 UTC WED NOV 08 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 151N 1048W 34 31  11(42)   2(44)   1(45)   X(45)   1(46)   X(46)
 12 151N 1048W 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 151N 1048W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
 24 159N 1053W 34  9  20(29)   5(34)   2(36)   1(37)   1(38)   X(38)
 24 159N 1053W 50  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 24 159N 1053W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 164N 1057W 34  3  13(16)   8(24)   3(27)   2(29)   1(30)   X(30)
 36 164N 1057W 50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 36 164N 1057W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 166N 1061W 34  1   9(10)   9(19)   3(22)   2(24)   1(25)   1(26)
 48 166N 1061W 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 48 166N 1061W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 168N 1065W 34  1   6( 7)   6(13)   4(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 72 168N 1065W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 72 168N 1065W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 170N 1070W 34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   3(15)   1(16)   1(17)
 96 170N 1070W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 96 170N 1070W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 170N 1075W 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)
120 170N 1075W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
120 170N 1075W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      35      30      30      25      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 08-Nov-2006 20:50:04 UTC