Tropical Depression ROSA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006
700 AM PST FRI NOV 10 2006
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT RESUMED JUST AFTER 06 UTC HAS PERSISTED
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SO ROSA LIVES ON A LITTLE LONGER AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND NOT
EXTENSIVE...HOWEVER...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. 
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN STRONG OVER
THIS SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE.  ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS
WEAKENING...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFDL STILL FORECASTS ROSA TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THAT MODEL HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS FORECAST
INTENSITY AND LOSES THE CIRCULATION SOONER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE ITS
PREDECESSOR...ANTICIPATES ROSA TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY.
 
ROSA IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE VERY QUICKLY...BUT ITS AVERAGE MOTION
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN ABOUT 325/3.  ONCE THE CONVECTION
IS SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BY THE SHEAR...THE CENTER OF
EX-ROSA WILL PROBABLY BE PULLED MORE WESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IN BETWEEN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHWEST AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO ITS SOUTHWEST. 
THIS IS THE SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...WHILE THE GFDL TAKES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER CYCLONE FARTHER NORTH.  NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW
THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG BUT A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 16.1N 106.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 16.5N 106.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 16.9N 107.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 17.2N 108.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER KNABB
 
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