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Tropical Depression ROSA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006
100 AM PST FRI NOV 10 2006
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ROSA IS RAPIDLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND MAY NOT EVEN
BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY LONGER. HOWEVER...JUST IN CASE ANOTHER
BURST OF CONVECTION FIRES OFF NEAR THE CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL ENTITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTER
POSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BEST. A 10/0000Z TRMM
OVERPASS ALONG WITH A 10/0042Z QUIKSCAT EDGE SWATH...BOTH OF WHICH
CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ISSUED...SUGGEST THAT THE
BROAD CENTER OF ROSA IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FURTHERMORE...THE CIRCULATION OF ROSA APPEARS
TO BE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE LARGER DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLOW
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE ROSA
REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE OTHER
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS.
 
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 450 NMI SOUTHWEST OF ROSA. THE
ENHANCED SHEAR PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING
TREND...AND PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN THE LONGER TERM. IT IS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THAT ROSA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER
DISTURBANCE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 15.7N 105.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N 106.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 16.3N 106.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.6N 106.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 10-Nov-2006 08:15:04 UTC