Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006
100 AM PST THU NOV 09 2006
 
DESPITE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
...THE CONVECTIVE CONSTRUCTIVE OF TD-19E HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. A
PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT...WITH A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO
-80C HAVING DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/05 BASED ON MICROWAVE AND
NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19E IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS..THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND
THEN MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT COMES UNDER THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE BY A LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
REMAINS NEAR TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
SHIFTS EASTWARD. TD-19E HAS ABOUT A 12H-18H WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE CYCLONE TO POSSIBLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS BELOW THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODEL
INTENSITY FORECASTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 14.8N 105.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 15.4N 105.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 16.4N 106.8W    30 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 16.6N 107.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 16.8N 107.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 16.7N 107.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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