ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 100 AM PST THU NOV 09 2006 DESPITE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ...THE CONVECTIVE CONSTRUCTIVE OF TD-19E HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. A PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...WITH A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C HAVING DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/05 BASED ON MICROWAVE AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19E IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS..THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT COMES UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE BY A LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS NEAR TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST SHIFTS EASTWARD. TD-19E HAS ABOUT A 12H-18H WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO POSSIBLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS BELOW THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 14.8N 105.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 15.4N 105.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.4N 106.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 16.6N 107.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 12/0600Z 16.8N 107.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/0600Z 16.7N 107.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 09-Nov-2006 08:05:04 UTC