Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006
700 PM PST WED NOV 08 2006
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUED TO DEGRADE
THROUGH ABOUT 0000 UTC THIS EVENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  SINCE THEN...A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER
LOCATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
 
DESPITE THE CURRENT SHEAR...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
CONTINUE TO INSIST THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS.  SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT WEAKEN THE
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS....THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY A LITTLE
BELOW THE GUIDANCE.  UNLESS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SOONER
THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

A LATE AFTERNOON AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS HAS HELPED TO PROVIDE
A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 320/6...WHICH IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS EXTREMELY DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL AND
UKMET KEEPING A MORE VERTICALLY-COHERENT SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS
THE CYCLONE WEAK AND PREDICTS IT WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOLLOWING CLOSELY WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.  ASSUMING THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO THE GFS AND SHALLOW BAM SOLUTIONS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 14.6N 105.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 15.3N 105.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 16.1N 106.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 16.5N 106.6W    30 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 16.8N 107.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 17.0N 107.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN