Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006
700 AM PST WED NOV 08 2006
 
THE VESSEL 4XGS LOCATED ABOUT 60 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER REPORTED 28 KT WINDS AT 1200 UTC...ALTHOUGH AN EARLIER
QUALITY CONTROL CHECK INDICATED THAT THE SHIP'S WINDS WERE RUNNING
A LITTLE HIGH.  A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE
INFLATED DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.  NONETHELESS THERE HAS BEEN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30
TO 35 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...IT
IS EXPECTED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST TO ITS NORTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST GFDL FORECAST. 
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE SYSTEM
COULD WEAKEN SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE
OF THE INITIAL POSITION REQUIRES SOME RELOCATION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  SOME ADDITIONAL RELOCATION MAY BE REQUIRED
WHEN MORE VISIBLE IMAGES BECOME AVAILABLE.  FOR NOW...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/6.  THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG IT BECOMES.  A BROAD TROUGH IS
PREDICTED TO DROP INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS
WOULD LIKELY TURN A VERTICALLY-COHERENT SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHEAST.  THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT I BELIEVE ITS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A LITTLE HIGH. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE
SHEARED OFF IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE MOVE
LITTLE BY DAYS 3-5...IF IT SURVIVES THAT LONG.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 13.6N 104.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 14.3N 104.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 15.3N 105.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 15.9N 106.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 16.2N 107.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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